nfp decimates many trading accounts i'm gonna give you guys an edge in this height impact on how to trade it and show you what i'm looking for in this week's release let's roll the intro arrive traders welcome back guys To another high impact at your boy cleveland i hope you guys are having a good monday okay we pushed out yesterday's sunday market breakdown that's gonna be In the description below we wanted a little bit of us strength before we got the us weakness on friday i'm expecting some bullish momentum when the us dollar because of the low nfp target that we have we're gonna be talking about that a little bit later in last week and last week's high impact video we had a pretty big video okay we're talking about the best trading strategy which is economic divergence okay that's gonna be an important video for you to rock watch cuz it relates Very well to this video here okay so that's also gonna be in the description below alright in folks this stuff happens quick make sure you subscribe and like the video for your boy okay appreciate it alright guys nfp look everybody knows what nfp is alright most retail traders when they get into the business they try to scramble around and find a broker and then they have a really vague idea about the fundamentals that get pushed out in the you know the economic data it gets pushed out in the fx market but they do know one they know one economic indicator that gets pushed out and that's usually an fp okay and then you kind of find out later things about interest rates and then It usually stops right there okay so guys a lot of folks know about what nfe is we're gonna dive deep i want to show you guys exactly what we're looking at in terms of nfp for the us and i'm gonna mark up some charts to kind of show you guys exactly what nfp is looked like throughout 2017 okay so we're actually gonna pull over into the charts in this high impact video alright so guys let's go up with the arbitrary definition of Nfp, okay non-farm payroll so what is non-farm payroll okayfor the new folks out there it's the amount of jobs added into the labor market okay into the workforce right now our current workforce sits at around 155 million Participants in the economy okay and month after month we get a reading on how many new participants are coming into the labor market alright and so that has a lot of implications Okay remember last week again you want to watch the last week's high impact video we talked about how the product Every sector is the gas it drives the economy right so depending on how many market Participants are entering into the labor force is gonna give you an idea as To how much the pedal is about, to be pushed okay and one thing that people don't rationalize Too much when we're talking about the labor market are the amount of people that are leaving the workforce okaySo currently right now in the age of 55 to 64 in terms of the labor market there's around 25 million baby boomers okay and those folks are retiring they're actually retiring at a higher rate then there are people coming into the labor market all right so that's just a statistic that many folks are looking at but we have still been fairly steady at having a 4.
3, to 4.
4 Unemployment rate month over month which is a record right we haven't been at 4.
3 on deployment since the collapse in 2008 okay but one thing that's really important that we're not going to talk about too much in this video i'm thinking about saving it For the next high impact video is the type of people being added into the workforce okay into the job into the labor market right So think about it you have this thing called u3 you know this thing called u6 unemployment that shows you exactly the type of people that are being employed okay but you six shows you the type of people that are underemployed right so if you were an engineer back in 2007 and now you're working you know over at the ymca? Technically you're gonna be contributing to the u6 unemployment rate because you aren't working at the same capacity you were before basically there aren't as many people having those jobs as there were before and that again has heavy implications on the market which has heavy implications on the type of productivity right the type of gas going into the vehicle okay and since we're on the subject of unemployment understand that nfp isn't an isolated event right it isn't sitting on some pedestal that you know people are people discount every other economic data release that is coming out all right just like every other data released it sits inside of this you know Enormous category of productivity and again they all weigh on each other right so if we if people are more scrutinizing cpi and inflation than guess what nfp is gonna be kind of pushed down a bit and on the totem pole in terms of how important it is as a release all right i can actually show you guys that over into the chart because in the past three or four months what we saw washow cpi inflationary numbers things in regards to consumer prices mattered a lot more the amount of jobs being added because folks this year again been adding a lot more jobs Than we were expected to and that's what i'm going To be talking about right now which is how to trade in fp the most important part about trading at fp Okay because look when you get the release that comes out everybody sees the forecast okay and then everyone sees the actual those are the two things that you can kind of look at sometimes they'll show you the previous as well but focus on the forecast and focus on the actual when you're looking at the forecast Understand that all the economists and all the largest uh you know banks out there have been? scrutinizing where they think and if he can go based on a lot of different data reports that they're getting pushed okay and so what Happens is you have markets price in that forecast all right so when markets price in that forecast let's say we have a forecast of? nfp two weeks out where we mentioned that for this week for example 88, 000 jobs are gonna be added this week this is gonna be a good example of how analysts at forecasting 88, 000 jobs at it now look they forecasted 88, 000 jobs at it because of certain things that happened last month dealing with all the climate calamities that happen in terms of armagh and in terms of you know hurricane harvey again they felt as if those weather conditions are gonna have implications on hiring right and people may not be soaking them higher when there are hurricanes you know ripping through their city right so again they lowered the expectation which is why 88, 000 jobs added is the lowest forecast that we've had in 2017 okay so think about every analyst has forecast at 8, 000 jobs added when we get the actual 8:30 on friday okay what are you what do you think is gonna happen okay if we get over that? 88, 000 jobs added number People are going to be more keen to start buying into the us dollar right because We beat the forecast if we get oh? Under that number then guess what people will be more keen to sell it alright but it also matters to the degree of? how much over we are on that 88, 000 jobs number if we're at eighty nine thousand jobs at it then folks you know you're not gonna see the market stir up too muchokay and the same thing if we're at 87 we need to be somewhat of a substantial margin Away from the forecast and that is where you're gonna get your best trades okay because folks if it's priced in already then when you're in between for example this week 5, 000 jobs added under or 5, 000 jobs added over Then you're really not going that much volatility but depending on how much it exceeds that number folks that is what you're looking for so currently again eighty-eight thousand let's see you are right on friday i'm hoping for some strength okay i want that thing to probably pop up to a Hundred thousand jobs at it and hopes that maybe we can get the u.
To take another leg down on the euro or it's a push higher on that you cat all right and we do actually have the? place for the us weakness in case it happens in case we get under 88, 000 jobs added you guys can go see the monday market breakdown to check out those trade ideas there okay so in this video folks are actually be pulling over into the charts because i want to show you guys month by month how nfp is played out based on the forecast and what we actually got and how the markets react and i think that's gonna be really valuable for you to kind of see that hey nfp even if you get the high number even if you you really exceed the forecast alright with the actual you still might not get an upside move all right so this is why playing nfp can sometimes be something that You don't really want to do because again the market randomness that comes in there lines with these markets it really really matters on the market structure more than anything if the market structure lines and if you get something that exceeds or that is you know very very much under the forecast that is what gives you your edge all right not just the market being it's really exceeding the forecast really being under the forecast You need that market structure there to align you have to be able to identify good market structure and if you get that aligning with the exceeding or marks being on or the forecasting very very much under the actual being very very much under That is where you make your money all right so guys let's pull over to the charts i want to show you what we looked like from january all the way up until august and they're gonna pull back over here to give you guys some final thoughts all right Different n fps from 2017 dating back to the first nf pedia january release that came out on february 2nd okay and now these gray zones here is Literally the um that's the friday price action so i'm on a 4-hour chart and so again i can encompass all the price action of that day in just around six bars alright so now uh So to get started in january the january release we actually had two hundred and twenty seven Thousand jobs added ok the forecast was a hundred and seventy-five thousand jobs added so in that sense we were better than expected but in that day's price action what do you see See an enormous run-up Inside of the you know in that friday's price structure so interestingly enough what happens after the fact sunday you then get the pullback okay So that's another scenario where if you were playing in fp that day unless you're just trying to catch maybe some short back down in a structure i just think that you probably got whipped out in that move here's another scenario on february we had two hundred thirty-five thousand jobs added ok the forecast was 190, 000 jobs So again better than expected by a considerable margin there to 40 to 45, 000 jobs you, know an asset in excess of what was expected folks we got nothing but a sheer run-up in that in that release there Okay and this was in march and interestingly enough in march we had a couple of things happening outside of Nfp again you have to look at you have to look at in a peek outside of just the number itself there a lot of different things happening and you know the counterpart economy i mean obviously our economy as a whole So here was a scenario where we were worse than expected all right so this was the march reading we had 98 thousand jobs added we were looking for a hundred and eighty thousand so we missed it by a 50% guys why did we still get a sell-off okay interesting interesting right so again this is why playing in fp you got To be careful a lot of times folks you don't really see these markets aligned? Too well so here was a scenario where we did have better than expected all right but i don't know if you guys remember what was happening back here but this was some stuff dealing with marine lepen okay so this was um right here there was 80 percent likelihood that Makram was gonna win the election we gapped up we got up and then he actually won the election And then he had a little small gap he also had a release come out Though the week before then this is the sunday overnight and then he had the market pulled back a bit maybe the market pulled back a bit because um the better than expected release that came out but other than that folks is interesting just To see how again this was this was our april release 211 thousand jobs added the forecast was 185 thousand jobs okay so better than expected low pull back on but mostly in the day folks just really consolidated really consolidated right so pulling over a little bit more let's go over look we're looking at another reading that was worse than expected in this case you did have a Plate to the upside okay so here was their first scenario where you had a trade idea and potentially if you were swinging it out maybe at the end of the day you ended up that with a higher pl then uh you know that a negative one so this was the main reading we had a hundred and thirty-eight thousand jobs added we were looking for a hundred and eighty-five thousand jobs here and as we can see we missed it by right around fifty thousand jobs which again gave us some weakness but it didn't leave really the high of structure here right made somewhat of a little bit of a higher high here in terms of you know the structure that we're looking at right there the media structure but other than that really just stayed range-bound okay you would think that nfp would have been the thing that pushed it out of your range but Let me i'm reading a structure and i'm knowing i'm seeing tendencies when it comes to these structures okay you guys Understand structure and if you know how to read structure again that is going to be honestly one of your biggest clues depending on the structure of the market that is honestly gonna dictate the move really more than nfp itself nfp can be a catalyst to helping structure you know your structural ideas your structural biases for but nfe itself is sometimes just you know just just shakes the market around and just washes people out So here's another scenario where we were better than expected this was june's reading we had two hundred twenty two thousand jobs added the forecast was a hundred and seventy nine thousand jobs added alright and in that day we did nothing but just kind of hang around Stutter step around here's your price structure there if you guys can see this was a the four hour 5 a.
bar market came open at 8:30 and all you did was have a bunch of volatility but never left a range never left a range very interesting here's another reading here of this was a better reading where we had let's see we had two hundred and nine thousand jobs added in july and we were looking for a hundred and eighty three thousand jobs okay that was the forecast okay so this was another scenario where again markets did pull back hit back on the structure that was a good play that was a good play like a good play there all right so we got one more reading Over here and so we have our next reading this week we had a bad reading that came out the august reading all right and this was a hundred and fifty-six thousand jobs added and we were looking for a hundred and eighty thousand jobs added so i have up here for you guys a screen shot go ahead if you want to check that and kind of just relay it yourself and do some self-study but again another scenario where you get the number that beats the consensus beats the forecast and you still get just nothing but a massive whiplash and then eventually you do have That next week you do have the market kind of push higher so again if you were swinging it out Potentially you were able to make some money but as you guys can see if i pull back here in many of the cases where you thought the market would have strength you know you really didn't get it okay and in the cases where you thought the market would have weakness the us dollar would have weakness Again you really didn't get it so when it comes to a nfp strategy Again the best nfe strategy that i can tell you is learn how to read price structure learn how to read price and Once you understand and learn how to read price and how markets are structured and how Market participants you know somewhat of how their books are at the moment right so an example is you have a huge move down here into this price area there right you have nfp kind of run the market wild here okay i remember we actually were trading this in our community we actually look at it at pete nfp every friday at 8:30 we're live in a community if you guys want to get inside that stop trader community there um and nothing happened right we just did we just just really just shook around in that price structure but Eventually we did have a trade for markets to go higher okay when the market opened that next week and it wasn't because of Nfp it was because of the general structure okay you have this huge explosion to the upside here you have markets retest the base this is something that we talk about all the time you have your push out you have the recess of the base and then usually you have your leg now obviously we failed to really push any higher but we had a lot of traders that actually we're taking profits and looking to make money here you know in the community and i actually remember this move right here in the monday marker breakdown so guys he head back in the money market breakdown this looks like the first week of the last month and i Actually talked about this price structure here and we were looking along you can go back and see that we were looking to go long In this bad boy and then we were hoping to go short but we never got this short we never got this short So again i suggest you guys just learn how to really understand market positioning and then use nfp you know as nothing more than a a condition that you know allows you to say hey if nfp is positive or if nfp is negative then i'll do this okay just increases the likelihood that You, know you're gonna get it the move that you're looking For okay but we're just trading straight trading the number men do not do that shit i just don't believe in it i think you should trade initially after the move there are some occasions where you can make some money but nine times out of ten guys i mean play nfp and nothing but nfp i doubt you'll have you know a profitable system you just don't have the resources and You, know the knowledge they're just available out there for you to really be able to hone in on exactly what these forecasts are gonna be you guys got To think professional analysts miss target all the freaking time okay they're horribly horribly wrong they're like the weathermen of you, know of trading alright so for you to think that you can beat them is a little bit irrational right but what you can Be and what you can understand is market structure and how nfp can have implications on how market structure is going to form after that releases out okay so i'm going to spin it back over and close out here but remember guys look at this look at this stuff here man it's very very interesting here's a screenshot of the numbers if you guys want to check them out for yourself and i'm gonna close out with a little bit more statistical facts of in it you guys you gotta be careful when you play this indicator right guys you'll see on many occasions as i showed you markets just surpassed the expected okay outcome you're the actual killing it by a margin and still you have us weakness okay the last eye the last example i showed you where we were expecting a hundred and eighty thousand jobs added and we got 156 and we still had a sell-off on the euro/usd you know you're asking yourself well what the hell why did that happen why didn't this work out well folks again the market is looking at many different indicators okay nfp can sometimes be that last stamp where the sayokay let's execute and on many occasions if nfp doesn't go the way they thought it would they still go in the direction that they need to fulfill you know the different obligations that they have at the fun that they're working at or the ideas that they have okay and if he can just really kind of give them better a better idea as to what they want to do maybe they don't put as much size on to the cell side to the by side position that they wanted in a us dollar right there are all these other different things that align so nfp is not an isolated event okay understand the market as a whole and what the market is looking for as a whole okay look at an inflation look at the cpi okay look at the pmi alright look at all the gdp figures that are coming out and one thing i did mention was that nfp is eighty percent of the economy okay guys you can still be getting an uptick and nf in gdp gross domestic product even without an additional you know any more additional workers coming in to the workforce because maybe you just have more consumer spending right maybe inflation maybe interest rates are low so the people that are inside the comment are just picking up in terms of spending look nfp is not an isolated event so i want to know your forecast okay i want to know who you knowWho thinks in a pee is gonna be exceeding the forecast or being under the forecast right now again we're looking at 88, 000 jobs out and added what is your forecast for nfp comment down below let me know i'm gonna let you guys know my forecast for a net p below as well and let's see who hits off and The next high impact i'm gonna tag the person who actually was the most accurate just To give you you know some props alright that's gonna be pretty cool so folks your profit Always my motive let me know what you guys want me to talk about in the poll above and i'm gonna be here if you Guys, need anything okay i'll talk to you guys real soon peace.