Welcome traders, this is VP and this is the Forex Q&A podcast.
I don't like to waste your time So we will jump right into things now I did shoot an episode 0 Which tells you little bit about the podcast and a little bit about my backstory and I suggest you go Listen to that first just so you get an idea of where I'm coming from and how I qualify myself and why you should listen to me in the first place, but if you have done that already then welcome to episode 1 and You might recall me saying in episode zero that that would be the only episode where I didn't field an actual question From you the listener.
Well, I was wrong I thought about and I came up with a pretty good idea and that idea was to begin the entire podcast series with the top 4 Questions that people already ask me as a Forex trader Just so you don't accidentally ask those questions and you at some point if probably wanted to know the answer to one of these questions And we're just gonna go ahead and answer now So this will probably be a longer podcast than normal since I'm answering four questions instead of one The but stick with this I think you're gonna enjoy the last question I hope you do some people laugh when I tell them what question number one is them the most Asked question I get when people find out I do what I do But let's go ahead and get to it now If you want to ask me a question you may do so and I'll get back to you as soon as I possibly can you Just go to nononsenseforex.
com Click on the ask VP tab and there's a forum right there where you can ask me just about anything You could possibly want to ask as long as it's forex trading related I'll get back to you within 48 hours if I can and real quick before we begin – I want you to know that most of these questions I get asked are by Americans and Americans don't often know what Forex is which depending on where in the world you're listening to this might sound crazy But you have to understand something when it comes to investing most Americans don't invest or trade in foreign currencies We have a really really big stock market and that's what we know and that's what we do – where most countries don't have a very big stock market the majority of them don't and so their game is forex I always compare to the NFL and then soccer football.
You know, what our stock market is the NFL It's gigantic heavily traded.
It's all we care about and to where Forex is soccer Forex is what the rest of the world does.
So when I get these questions, sometimes they're kind of dopey But you just have to understand they're usually being asked by people who don't really trade the markets we trade But then again, sometimes they aren't sometimes these are asked to me by very experienced forex traders so you just don't know but these are certainly the most common ones I get and I did the top four because these are the Four questions I get asked the most by far So let's get right into it.
Shall we question number four if I had to rank them? I would say this is the fourth most asked question.
I get when people find out what I do is this Where do you think the euro is going to go up or down? And you Can insert euro with dollar with pound with yen with really anything So what they're asking me to do is forecast where I think a certain currency is going The euro seems to be the one people ask about the most for some reason and now this is a very vague Question because you have to like what time frame are you asking first by the end of this week today? You know by the end of the calendar year, what what do you want to know? People seem to leave that part out But it doesn't matter because my answer is always the same and my answer is this, “I have no idea” and believe me That's a good thing.
This is certainly not the answer people want to hear and it shocks them and Automatically makes them discredit what I do and who I am because I like well, this is what you do This is what you're about How do you not have some kind of idea where things are going and then I'm kind of stuck because now I need to explain It to them and they might not quite understand what I'm talking about at this point, but I explain it anyway And I tell them look I am a technical trader I have charts right in front of me that are going to tell me where things are going to go But not a week from now or a year from now.
No right now I wake up do my morning routine Get all my stuff out of the way and then at 2:00 p.
Pacific Standard Time.
I open my laptop up since it's the end of the day and I look at my charts.
I have every currency pair I trade laid out and Every time I go to a particular currency pair my chart is going to tell me to do one of three things either to make a trade long or short or to manage a trade I'm already in or to do nothing and simply move on to the next one and Then that's it.
It's pretty great and Again, this is not the answer they want to hear because I didn't really answer their question for one I tried to explain a little bit behind my processes and It's just just not something They want to hear they want to know if something's going up or down so they can take advantage of it or they can go Sound smart in front of their friends because a Pro actually said it, you know, whatever their motivation was for asking me the question this one does not get answered because I genuinely do not know and do not care and Believe me when I tell you this.
This is a really really good thing I'll make a whole other video talking about how trying to forecast where things are going Even if it's just based on charts much less fundamental analysis Forecasting is a sucker way to go.
It will lead to nothing.
But misery down the line the only people who make money Forecasting where the markets go are the people on TV and I'll tell you right now they're not great traders They're great at being analysts.
They're great at being smart about what's going on But when it comes to actual pen to paper trading, they're not very good Now you might find this hard to believe you might not believe me at all when I say this, but you know Who does? Ray Dalio the most successful hedge fund investor on the planet net worth of seventeen point four billion Dollars he agrees with me.
So you probably should too.
I'll actually go reference it right now.
I have his book which is Honestly “Principles” by Ray Dalio is the single best investment book of our generation if you haven't gotten it already But I'm going to open it right now to page 42 If you have in front you there is an italicized section right in the middle and the very first sentence is this and I quote Truth be known “forecasts aren't worth very much and most people who make them don't make money in the markets” end fucking quote Now it goes on to explain a little more and kind talks about what does work and honestly everything I was so excited when I read this book is everything this guy thinks and does I Would say 95% of a kind of aligns with the way I do my trading too So that was really empowering and very comforting to hear But let's not get too far away from this what he just said is the key thing to understand here And again, I'm gonna do a whole video on why fundamental analysis is a huge waste of time and I'm gonna reference this again but just know Forecasting is a sucker's game Stop wasting your time on it It does nothing but cost you money and more importantly it cost you time And the greatest thing about forex trading is you can have both in this business if you want to but step one is to stop Forecasting and if somebody asks you with the euros going or where the pounds going and you don't know that's okay I don't trade Forex to impress people I trade because I want that rare combination of money and time and I hope that's why you trade too.
If that's the reason why you trade you are on the right podcast and If you can please it means a lot subscribe.
Give me a like on iTunes anything you can this podcast is just starting and If you want honest content like this that you're not gonna get anywhere else subscribe and stay with me I got new content coming out every single week whether it's a podcast where it's on my youtube channel No Nonsense Forex or the website Nononsenseforex.
com, if you guys stick with me your trading has nowhere to go but up alright, so on to question number three and a question number three is kind of a derivative of question number four But it's unique onto itself And I'll just go ahead and tell you what it is.
The question is based on Blank something that just happens some world event some election, whatever Where do you think blank whatever currency plug it in Euro dollar pound? Where do you think it's gonna go? So I'll fill in the blanks for you that the main question I got asked was after the Trump election Where do you see the dollar going? And this is a very different question because I actually know the answer to this but there's no way I would tell the common person Because there's a twist So let's take the Trump election.
Now remember he wasn't supposed to win so when he did People really want to jump on any kind of investment that could piggyback off of the surprise because the markets had already priced in a Hillary Clinton win and it didn't happen and Now I can forecast this because I know how Forex works, and I know how the bank's work And if you don't understand right now That the big banks are the people who actually decide whether the price of anything goes up or down Then you need to watch my video that I made on this topic alone And I'll link it down below because it's the number one thing every single forex trader has to know Before you even start trading if you don't know who and why money goes up and down you probably think you know But unless you really know and understand how it works.
You shouldn't be trading.
It's the base level stuff You need to understand so click that link after you're done with the podcast But I knew that the value of the dollar was going to get weaker in the long term When that change was going to happen.
I did not know now I knew the dollar is going to get weaker because a cheaper dollar makes the economy go up now Trump is a money guy his Entire identity has been wrapped around the fact that he is a successful money guy he is not going to let the economy fall under his watch and Staying true to form the economy has done nothing but rise on air Since he entered office and you really really need a cheap dollar to do that So I knew that the euro dollar pair for example was going to go up I just didn't know when and I knew it wasn't going to be right away.
I Told my private clients this I said look, I don't make forecasts but for the love of God Whatever you do.
Don't go long on the euro dollar just yet And if you go to a chart right now go to a daily chart of the euro dollar you can see exactly what happened Conventional wisdom is what I just told you that the value of the dollar was going to get cheaper So the economy could go up and stay up Thus making the euro dollar pair go higher most of us know that right But do you know who knows that we know that? the big banks and they knew there were going to be a ton of long positions entering the euro dollar and They were right So in other words the banks had all that free money that they could just take just sitting there Waiting to go along the Eurodollar.
So what do you think they did? they took it short and they took it short pretty hard and Forex investors, especially the ones that went along Eurodollar didn't know how to handle it.
They didn't know what to do They didn't know what was happening and you'll even see on that chart There was a point in time where they took it up a little bit just to give people a glimmer of hope that the end Was over and the reverse was finally started to happen.
And then what did they do? boom took it down even harder and They waited and as soon as almost every last euro dollar long investor was out of the pool Then and only then Did they start taking the euro dollar long? the big banks knew yes, the value of the dollar needs to get less expensive and it's going to but we decide when Not you the forex investor.
Not you the Forex trader us Now rarely do I ever make a forecast but when I do it's because I know exactly what's going on behind the scenes At least I know what their mentality is.
It's a really good place to start and I nailed this one But for your average Joe walking around the street or somebody.
I just met, you know to ask me that question I'm not going to answer it again I'm gonna act like I really don't know even though this time I do know the answer because it's a it's a complex answer that you as a Forex trader understand but most people aren't going to Now when it came to things like brexit, I honestly had no idea So that was a pretty easy answer But if there's ever a world event that happens and because of it you have a pretty solid idea whether a currency is gonna go up or down just know that other people have it figured out too and the big banks aren't gonna Let you win right away.
So anticipate price to go the other way for a while Just kind of stay out of the pool and let let the market do what it does before you make any kind of long-term investments in the market So moving on to question number Two and things have cooled off a bit on this or it would be number one but and you probably saw this coming question number two is Do you trade crypto? So by crypto — Bitcoin, etherium.
Anything else is out there right now and my answer is no I do not, end Story now as to why, I don't dislike crypto.
I like the idea of it.
It's something really cool that's that's coming into the the investment plane right now and I salute all the people that got in early and had the sense to get out at a certain time or People that are trying to buy and hold, you know, whatever you're doing.
You know, you took the chance You deserve good or bad whatever happens to you.
But for me, I only play games I know I can win This is why I don't invest in stocks.
This is why I don't touch crypto This is why I don't play blackjack If I don't have an edge if I am supposed to lose my money by the time the game's over I don't touch it.
It doesn't I'm not in it for the thrill Actually making money is the thrilling part and if I have a realistic chance to do that then that's what I'm going to choose to play and Crypto certainly is not it.
I know how the big banks work.
I know their thought process I don't know who the people who control crypto what their thought process is why things go up and down? So there's there's a huge disadvantage to me right there from the start Also, I've tried charting crypto.
Try charting Bitcoin against the USD It's not a pretty chart the chart does not follow my algorithm very well at all.
So there goes that So no, I I don't trade crypto.
I have no opinion on whether it's going up or down.
I Wish some of these investors the best but crypto did bring in a lot of very new novice Stupid investors.
So it's gonna kind of be fun from the sidelines watching how this whole thing plays out But I'm not gonna be a part of it one way or the other So we are on to question number one Drum roll with my fingers.
Now, I hope this question does not hit home for you I hope you understand the question and see the humor in it, but it's a bit of an unfortunate situation in the end for the people who got caught up in this But my number one question I get when people find out that I'm a professional forex trader Is this so I have this Iraqi dinar? laying around Do you think it's ever going to go up in value? and I'm like, oh No, not this question again.
So if you're wondering there's two reasons why somebody would ask me this question number one back during the Iraq war that they had they were there or a relative was there and they brought back a bunch of the currency and Maybe just as a souvenir for or whatever and it's just sitting there and they want to know if it has any value Okay, that's fine But the more likely reason is that they got scammed now the gist of this was the scammer would approach you and Say now the Iraq war is over we have brought more democracy to a very large country that has a lot of oil and all they need is to Create an infrastructure and get things going again, and their currency is going to take off or something to that effect Yeah, and then they try to sell you a bunch of useless Iraqi dinar which you know If you want to know how the story ends you can go look at a 20-year chart of the dollar – I think it's the IQ d so the USD IQ D and you'll see really hasn't gone anywhere and it's probably not going to for a very long time They kind of missed the point when it comes to Iraq Rebounding first off in many ways.
We haven't really left Second you can't tell a country who's been a theocracy for centuries – all of a sudden Flip everything around to become a democracy and everything's gonna all of a sudden be good again It doesn't really work that way and three you should be very wary of anybody who approaches you with something like this but they fell for it and they held on and they just keep trying to find some reason to believe and maybe that reason will come but it is probably not going to that whole area still has the deck highly stacked against itself and I know I said I don't make forecasts.
But if I were to make one it would be that you should light it on fire Frame it keep it as a reminder to yourself to not get scammed like this ever again But that would be my answer to the single most asked question.
I get as a Forex trader So if either one of these four questions was the top question on your mind great now you have an answer and it cost you nothing But what will also cost you nothing is to ask me any question you want so again go to nononsenseforex.
com click on ask VP fill out the form and Ask me anything and there's a little checkbox there if you want your question to air on an episode of the Forex Q&A podcast Feel free.
This is how I get my episodes so I rely on you So ask me anything go check out the videos go check out the side subscribe Give me a like anything you can do I and in return.
I will send you a brand new podcast episode every Monday it'll be right there in the morning for you here in North American South America and maybe just a little bit later in Europe, but gotta figure out how to do this exactly, but I'll figure it out and You'll get one every Monday start your day off right Make yourself a better and better Forex trader every single week by listening to the things that you don't always necessarily Want to hear but the stuff you really need to hear that you are not getting anywhere else It is the only way to get better at this game It is the only way to finally get to that point to where you can have that time money combination that nobody else has Right here on the Forex Q&A podcast.
We'll see an episode two.