hello fellow traders and welcome toanother episode of unconventional Forex trading Channel I hope today to berelatively brief today it's Friday the 6th of March 2020 I will show youanother practical example of mathematical analysis applied to forexmarket and the relative results just bear with me for the length of thisvideo today I'm doing this video with a specific request I got let's say I gottwo requests in real a long the time but with the second one always via email Ifigured out that more of you would have had some some questions like thisbasically the question was that normally I do make examples mirroring my tradeson demo accounts but I always use you knowdemo account with 10, 000 units of currency balance and also with a higher leverageand the question that I got from one of you I will not say the name of coursefor privacy reasons but was pretty legitimate to do.
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this guy was asking that “how it's possible or if it's possible totrade by having a normal set up of account” what I mean I mean that this guywas asking about I have about a thousand euros to trade so not ten thousand but athousand euros and I'm also trading by using an account with a leverage of a100:1 okay so not five hundred leverage but 100 leverage so as Inormally do not speak that much also about money management and also lot sizefor as regards trading positions I decided during the week to made anaccount for you know .
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for educational purposes and to do somekind of replication of what is the normal expectation of profit by using ofcourse my own methodology at least I can speak for the way I do approach to forexanalysis and therefore forex trading but it's something very subjective this isnot an invitation to trade or whatever butif you are interested in Forex analysis whatever and you are not verysatisfied by indicators or fancy expert advisors or trading robots and you aremore focused on manual trading anyway this kind of approach seems to reveal goodresults in terms of profitability even with small accounts and with smallleverage which means restricted amount of money that we can put in themarket and trade in order to get our equity rising so as I will show you nowdirectly I would would go directly to the point I created my account as usual mirroringthe trade of today let's just have a brief note on this so the account wasfounded with 1000 units of Euro anyway 1000 units and with a leverage ofa 100:1 you will also see in the final statement ofcourse I traded just this morning within the London session and of course Iclosed my trades about half an hour before the release of the non-farmpayrolls which of course can create some some kind of big spikes and in thebeginning of the American session of course .
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but just to show what can bedone on a daily basis in terms of profit by using some math and some analysis andsome logical considerations of course this is related to a normal day tradingactivity so I also measured lot size okay and I got some kind of moneymanagement on this just to give also an example of how to behave within thesame circumstances where every normal trader could affordso roughly 1000 euros of balance and trading lot sizes in this case of 0.
03so of course I'm running my usual u.
UFO expert advisor which of courseprovides me strength and weakness of the currencies this is a part of my strategyand I'm using this in order to confirm what I also have in my Excelspreadsheets I'm showing you here basically this isthe this is the development of the dayalways reading right to left so here we have the currencies and here we have the28 pairs normalized .
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the black line that you see here is basically the euro dollarsee if we can see that okay so this is also the behavior of EURUSD .
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marketsstarted here so here's the open of the day and so we have the development ofall the currencies.
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normally my workflow starts from the analysis of this Excelspreadsheet and in conjunction also then with a double confirmation provided by myexpert advisor u.
UFO .
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the one that I have created and just prior toproceed just a brief explanation on how things are working in terms of analysisbasically I have these eight lines which are 8 currencies that I get from mycalculations and so here I have the black one is the New Zealand dollar thebrown is the Japanese yen the yellow is a Swiss franc then a seat here thepurple is the GBP the green is the AUD .
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the Australian dollar then thegray one is the CAD and red one is the USD of course the blueit's here is the EUR so from the beginning of the day I started to see adevelopment of the currencies so the first assumptions that that I made ofcourse I woke up just a couple of hours before the starting of the European/London session where I was about to see some strength of New Zealand dollar andJapanese yen even with some of oscillations of course but there wasthis kind of strength there was also starting weakness of the eurobut that was also going along with the weakness of the USD.
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when I domentoring, to explain these things deeply, I cannot I cannot make, you know, acomplete mentoring here, even because it will take a lot of time and because it'ssomething that must be tailored to the needs of everyone just to give you roughinformation normally when I do consider euro I also consider dollar so Iconsider the euro dollar as the main pair and so the main combination ofcurrencies that provides equilibrium in the forex market so by following theeuro as a negative that someone could have thought about thinking in terms ofselling euro in real that would have been trade to do if the dollar wouldhave been on the positive side so if it would have been on the buy side but asyou can see a euro and dollar let's see this by making this simple doubleEUR and USD were somehow going along this way so this is always the beginningof the day and blue is the Euro and red is USD so even dollar was going down andin fact there was a relative strength of Euro against dollar therefore euro wasin a buy direction was long okay in fact at this point 25 bars 15 minutestimeframe from now the system now this is the moment the present we got thisgreat divergence between euro and dollar in favor of euro okay? so otherassumptions that I made.
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there was this AUD moving.
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of course we have tounderstand that at the beginning of the day in the asian session we had thismajor currencies that then can preserve the trend or revert the trend in thefollowing sessions which are AUD NZD and JPY and then of coursein the next session take more place EUR GBP CHF and also ofcourse USD, related to the other currencies .
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also after checkingthis scenario and figuring out what would be what could have been the setup of the day for trading I also searched for some confirmation onthis chart on the right which basically is like analyzing 28 currency pairs allthe time in just one chart, because they are normalizedso as you may notice here we can see all the currency pairs and therefore Icould have some information related to certain currencies because for exampleby watching as I told you the Euro falling down as well the dollar fallingdown I wanted to check for example the EURCAD which was not falling that muchdown and was also following the EURUSD .
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in the sense of going up sosomehow I was thinking more to buy euro than selling it okay?but this is a process you know that takes some moments .
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a very small amountof time compared to analyzing on Metatrader 28 charts and clustering themby currency which takes of course a lot of more fatigue and mental stressin order to figure out what to do so after analyzing both the elements andof course I can tell you briefly that by having in order to have I will do anupdate now so I will also give an overview of how this this even if I'm aprevious videos and I strongly suggest you to go back and watch them if you'renew to this channel I'll just show you I will make an update so you will seethat these values are updating in real time in a matter of seconds basically onmy Metatrader along with the UFO which confirms anyway in the long term this isthe daily and of course this is the EURUSD daily so we saw that the Eurodollar was up of about a hundredpips and in fact my values here are confirming that EUR was positive andUSD was negative .
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what else? we got CADi very negative and we can see herefrom our chart if we select only the CAD for a second from the startingof the day we got just this rise up with this strong level of resistance that wasnot broken and then going down then returning back to the zero level andthen falling down this is the Canadian dollarokay so that was making sense to me enough to inject my trades the way I didit .
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I was saying.
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on this Metatrader all this expert advisor are created by me soI exactly know what I'm doing I had this expert advisor whichbasically works in the sense of pulling out data from Metatrader and creatingsome .
CSV files that then buy some VBA operations in Excel are importedin Excel and then are updated always in Excel generating by updating all theformulas that are in my tabs and updating all the final results sowhat we see here basically now is creating a new data and the new data arein the folder of Metatrader in the folder files and we see here now iscreating again files are created and left therefor some seconds to allow the user to update Excel and then they are erasedand then they are recreated again why this because this way the closes of thepresent moment are always updated to the latest values okayso now we will wait some seconds then the files are deleted now are they areregenerated and if I go and now I start to double click here see that this valueis going updating updating we are a hundred percent data loaded and now I willcreate an update of my files and you will see they magically update.
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the chartswill update consequently with the latest closes and of course there is thisadvancement of course I decided to stop my trades prior to the release of thenon-farm payrolls this is the first Friday of the month because of the highvolatility and because we are going towards the ending of the market so Ididn't want to messed up to much because I already realized some tangibleprofit that day by day can compound my balance increasing it ok so basicallythis is the way that I do my analysis and of course of this as I'm using Excelit's based on month so mathematical formulas because in forex market and wehave this peculiarity which is unique compared to any other kind of marketwhere currencies are related one to each other as just because we are tradingpairs so when we trade euro dollar we trade euro in one sense and the dollarin the opposite sense and this goes for each and every pairtherefore pairs establish a relation that is stable between every currency okay? sothis is the unique to clarity that I found and then that drives me every timeto choose the Forex market as my preferred and unique market to tradeokay so by giving you a brief overview of this I think it's enough and let'sproceed also showing you the trades that I made today here is a brief recap ofcourse and let's see the results so I'm showing you here the trades I made so youcan check and I strongly invite you as usual to.
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because also someone can say ohno but you're creating something fake.
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whatever.
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so you canalways check the open time of the trades and also the direction the currenciesthat have been traded and the price I'm not trading with stop-loss but I willshow you in a moment also regards the in regards to the money management how do Ibehave okay so first of all by having an account of 1000 euros okay and 100leverage okay of course here is the date whatever whenI took the screenshot I had to act consequently for as regards the sizing ofthe lot of the Lots that I traded so I decided to use this lot size for everytrade I made .
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” shame on me”.
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something that I shouldhave considered as well because as you may notice here I traded twice NZDCAD which was fine but at the same time I could have alsotrade and I don't know why I missed this trade but it happens anyway could havebeen positive as well because if I am buying New Zealand dollartherefore I am determining that CAD is weak and for example in this case I sellAUD and I buy JPY so I decide that Japanese yen is strong I couldhave also trade CADJPY selling Canadian dollar and buying Yenit would have been another trade you know put in the list but in thiscase I made only nine trades in this day instead of ten but that'sfine anyway so here is the result which is really really really good in terms ofprofit okay considering also that I got just one 1.
44 euro of commissions so this was the total profit thatthen I got to take off this costs basically I made today the 12% on mybalance think in terms that a bank if you give to them your money blocked inin a fund for one year maybe you get from one to two percent in oneyear I made 12% in one day not even in one day in some hours and therefore youcan make by yourself at least this math because if you think in terms that youcan trade I don't know 20 days in a month and compounding an average of 12%sometimes can be ten other times can be fifteen or twenty it depends also on thevolatilities to remember that today is Friday by the end of the month you canreally achieve results like 150% 250% okay? .
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by making 12/15% every day and of course maybe nottrading all the days but let's say twenty days in a month could besufficient so this is the profitability of my analysis by trading using a math analysis ratherthan technical or fundamentals of course I'm adding some fundamental analysis becauseI spoke to you about the non-farm payrolls which is a news event becauseit has always to be something that you have to be aware of because there arealso some traders that are taking decisions and there are trading by thedata points that they are receiving from the fundamentalNews so it makes sense that also fundamental news can affect thedirection of our currency of a currency pair so being aware of that can addanother layer of security to our trading which is important this is partof the risk management okay and of course by you can see by yourselfthat by watching this chart actually was one of the not very fewbecause in real if you trade with some you know coherence and someconsciousness you can achieve resolve like this as well which is a 100% of positive results with basically no drawdown I got a drawdownjust of a couple of Units not that much but was basically nothing and if you canthink that 123 euros on 1.
000 in six hours is not enoughfor you maybe this is not a channel for you but I think that by compoundingevery day of trading an amount like that by the end of the month itcould be a very good satisfaction at least for me it is okay so you have toask yourself and answer yourself as well so this is the statistics from mytrading and as a final answer in order also to answer to my followers thatbrought me about making an example like this so more like within the real worldwith a proportionate and realistic in the realistic starting balance andrealistic realistic Lot sizing and also some moneymanagement in this case let's check it out as well I always spoke about thefact that I trade without using stop losses in the traditional sense of stoplosses okay even to prove that by analyzing with mathematical approachit reduces drastically the risk, therefore I test also my algorithms by not usingstop loss line that can be that the broker can catch okay so I leave to thepair's the ability to oscillate in order to reach the point that I am targetingokay but anyway I do use the concept of stop loss in which way by using anotherexpert advisor that I created which is very simple but at the sametime is very effective effective and helps me to apply a money managementapproach okay and let's see if I loaded here probably no oh here is the CSV sothe two data from Metatrader here we have the uUFO.
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let's see if we haveit here.
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so basically here this is my money manager okay which basically byseeing the options I have only two elements the stop loss level and thetake profit level okay which are set by default this way but I can always changethem in real time so let's say that I want to have a stop loss level of -2% and take profit level of +15% okay and then I update my algorithm so hereyou see my setup I have these values that I just put in the form and what do I mean with stop level in percentage and take profit level I meanthat if I made 9 trades the overall level that willimmediately close all of my trades so that I can rebuild my strategy and re-starttrading without losing that much money will be the 2 percent on equity okay soif I have 1000 euros of balance and the overall trades all together there you gobelow 20 euros just 2% okay this expert advisor automatically willclose on the trades from me as well as if I have a profit so if my balance goesabove 150 euros which is the 15% and take profit ofcourse I can give minus 2 percent minus 5 percent minus 50 percent dependson my attitude to risk but as I wanted to make a normal example and also a goodbehavioral example for the ones that requested via mail this question but alsofor all the others 'cause it's important to give the right awareness also for aregards money management this is the way I do but instead of calculating and alwayswatching my balance and equity whatever I created a simple expert advisor thatdoes the job for me ok so I don't have to think about thatonce the orders are into the panel then it's about this expert advisor to managethe possible losses or possible profits so this would be more easy of course Iam also in this moment I have a break-even situation ok so there's notrading of course I am the also the unnerved if I am in loss orin profit I have also here a hundred 100 leverage situation and of course whenthe trays are running I have also the percentage and the number of the ordersthat I have on and my balance and my equity moving of course so I have allthe information that I need recapped here for simplicity .
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in terms ofanalyzing the trades of course we can see without no problems about the eurodollar let's see .
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EURUSD.
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I started trading around this time sothis were the pips more or less that I realizedalso let me remember I got the EURCAD started around this time okay what else I gotI was not that much happy with GBPAUD but that's fine let's check this youknow this was this messy situation so I barely got it in pair by after acertain point but there was not that much probably because of the non-farmpayrolls regarding the next American session that anyway there was thisranging phase that would have been you know somehow leveling at least thattrade .
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what else made.
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the AUDJPY and yeah but I read anyway for a GBP thatagainst AUD when not that well the GBP against the CAD wasmore than positive okay and also the AUDJPY was we were saying was oscillating so there was this battle between GBP and AUDbut at the end it was winning the JPY against the AUD of course I suffered a little bit in this point so about twenty pips down but it wascompensating by other currencies that were more than positive and going aboutyou know roughly 40 pips what else we got?USDJPY and EURCAD okay and USDJPY was about here so I got 80 pipsand yeah what I miss it was the CAD in Sell Japanese yen in Buy which was mostsimilar but I repeat once you identify the currencies there are strong and weakas I already largely explained in my previous webinars and videos then youknow how to set up coherently the pairs accordingly to the strength and theweakness so if you trade euro dollar in buy then you will not buy dollar againstsomething else because .
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if you're if you're buyingeuro and selling dollar this selling dollar has to be for all the other pairsso you will.
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it's it's a double confirmation that youknow for sure that USDJPY is most is most likely to go to be Sell ratherthan Buy okay? so there is a logic in this kindof approach that helps also to organize the order the orders .
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with a coherentsetup okay in order to create that synthetic pair which is the equationgenerated by putting the orders together with buy and sell order so I think thatfor today and for this explanation this is quite all that Iwanted to say and I hope that by showing this example I properly answered to thequestions I got and gave also not only by typing some words but take apractical example of how to behave and also how to consider the moneymanagement and so it's all for that and as usual I wish you a good weekend goodending of the week and also a good starting of the week and trading week aswell and I wish of course Good Space 'n' Good Time!bye!!!.
